A tiny bit of good budget news

It's been a long time, but finally legislators have some small bits of good news to celebrate (emphasis on the words "some" and "small").

Arun Raha, the state's chief economist, is wrapping up this morning's revenue forecast meeting. Raha gives quarterly updates on how much money the state is bringing in and from what sources.

The good news? After months of declining revenue (we've collected $1.7 billion less than anticipated in April 2009), Raha says the state will bring in about $31.5 million more than expected during the remaining half of the 2009-2011 biennium. For legislators, this represents a long-awaited flattening of a year-long budget nosedive.

As Rep. Ross Hunter points out, "flat is the new up."

But there's a way to go before anyone can say we're well on our way to economic recovery. Raha says consumer confidence is still very low, the commercial real estate market is still in decline, non-residential construction is at a 30-year low, credit is tight, and the impending expiration of home buyer tax credits could throw a wrench in the housing market.

Not to mention (but we will), the Dot Foods case is costing the state $150 million. The impact of Dot Foods, then, means that instead of being up $31.5 million, we're down $118 million. If the Legislature addresses that case this session (one of the reasons Hunter says we need to suspend I-960), we could reclaim $95 million of that.

So what's the number you'll hear legislators using to describe our shortfall? $2.7 billion, no thanks to the increased caseloads legislators learned about earlier this week.

Raha's final plea to the audience: "Please buy a house. Or a strip mall!"