Newest revenue forecast signals we should be on our way up soon

Earlier today the Economic and Revenue Forecast Council presented the latest state revenue forecast. These forecasts give legislators a sense of how much revenue the state is bringing in and is critical to helping craft the state budget. The Council presents a forecast every few months.

This forecast has two components: the final numbers for the 2007-09 biennium, which ended on June 30 and changes to the 2009-11 biennium, which we are now in. Together, for both biennia, we're down an estimated $238 million from what we expected in revenue.

Dr. Arun Raha, the director of the council, pointed out it seems likely the recession has ended, though recovery will be slow and unemployment will remain high for some time.

Washington is expected to outperform the nation in the recovery, and national and state experts agree that Washington is poised to be one of the five states to lead the economy back up.

Legislators will be back in Olympia in January and, as usually is done in even-numbered years, will draft a supplemental operating budget. The 2010 supplemental budget will have to address the revenue situation, as well as caseload increases, etc.

At this morning’s meeting, Victor Moore, director of the Office of Financial Management, estimated that by January we'll face a $500 million to $1 billion budget problem.

You can watch Rep. Ross Hunter and Marty Brown talk about the upcoming budget challenges on last night's The Impact. Hunter sits on the revenue council and is chair of the House Finance Committee. Brown is the policy director for Governor Chris Gregoire.

Tonight, TVW will air an interview with Rep. Kelli Linville who chairs the House Appropriations Committee. Also interviewed will be Victor Moore.